After months of heated debate, the residents of Greater Manchester are now voting on one of the most ambitious and radical urban road-pricing schemes the world has ever seen. Both Yes and No camps have stepped up their campaigns in a last-ditch attempt to reach out to the quarter of voters who have yet to make up their minds on the Transport Innovation Fund (TIF) proposals. By the 11 December, Manchester's electorate will decide whether to accept congestion charging in return for a £3bn investment in public transport.
Down to the wire
In many ways, the timing could not be worse. As the effects of the credit crunch feed through into the real economy, and newspaper headlines herald the arrival of a serious recession, voters from Wigan to Stockport are feeling the pinch. And in an area where over 60% of people still commute to work by car, some Manchester residents and businesses worry that congestion charging will be a further blow to the health of the local economy.
The latest polls show that the vote is on a knife-edge. 51.4% of those surveyed in October and November supported the TIF package, while 48.6% were opposed. In addition to this supporters outweigh opponents in only six of Greater Manchester's ten boroughs, and the referendum must pass in at least seven council areas in order for the TIF programme to go ahead. So there's no celebrating in the Yes camp just yet - and the outcome could easily go either way.
Why Manchester should vote yes
As decision time approaches the deepening recession and voters' fears of a hit in the pocketbook could swing the referendum result against the charge.
At the end of the day, however, a vote for the Yes campaign is a vote for the long-term economic vitality of Greater Manchester. A ‘Yes' vote makes economic sense - as it will deliver business growth, greater inclusion, and unprecedented public transport investment.
Congestion imposes a hidden cost on Greater Manchester's businesses and the targeted c-charge scheme will make deliveries and commutes faster - helping local markets become more efficient. And there is evidence to suggest that together with better public transport, the scheme will help to support the creation of thousands of new jobs across Greater Manchester over the medium-to-long term.
30% of Greater Manchester households have no access to a car, including thousands of working people on low incomes. The scheme will help link more people to jobs by drastically improving bus services and integrating ticketing systems. For the small number of low-income drivers who have no choice but to drive into or out of town during charging hours, the proposed 20% discount makes the scheme more inclusive than London's. And most Manchester drivers - regardless of income - will rarely pay the charge at all, thanks to its peak-time, one-way design.
Finally, the Manchester scheme will deliver a once-in-a-generation boost to local public transport. Looking at the £1.5bn in government grant as a ‘bribe' misses the point. The introduction of c-charging will unlock nearly £3bn in upgrades that will make Greater Manchester a more attractive business environment for decades to come.
The numbers make sense: for every £1 paid by road users, the Government and transport operators will invest £2. With public spending set to contract from 2010-11 in order to pay for the current fiscal stimulus package, there's little chance that a package of this size could be agreed again over the next decade.
Fate of c-charging in other cities
A ‘no' vote in Greater Manchester would leave one of the Government's flagship transport policies in tatters. There is no clear ‘plan B' for the Transport Innovation Fund. To date, Manchester is the only city to have submitted a worked-up bid. Cambridge, an early front-runner, is now re-evaluating its plans - and the West Midlands has pulled its bid entirely.
The Government has already indicated that Manchester won't get a slimmed-down investment package in the event of a ‘no' vote. The Conservatives, meanwhile, propose opening up TIF to bus improvement proposals from all English councils, diluting the Fund's power as an incentive for radical changes to urban transport.
If Manchester turns down congestion charging, there will be some solace in the city-regional devolution package promised in the Pre-Budget Report. That will give the Greater Manchester city-region the freedom to invest in local public transport - but without the £3bn the TIF package provides. But regardless of the outcome in Manchester, prompt action is certainly needed to improve public transport in England's major cities. Public transport is critical to city labour markets - during both the peaks and troughs of the economic cycle. Short-term priorities, including integrated ‘smartcard' ticketing, better information, and a concerted push to improve bus reliability, need to be delivered in Manchester and other cities - with or without congestion charging.
A version of this article first appeared on publicfinance.co.uk
Centre for Cities recently published Congestion Charging: A tool to tackle congestion in UK cities?
